THE BASEBALL SAVANT

PYTHAGOREAN RECORDS THRU MAY 18, 2008

Despite my disdain for interleague play, I was interested to see how the National League measured up to the American League. It's been pretty obvious to most onlookers that the A.L. has been the superior league over the last several years, but the more I watch baseball in 2008, the more I believe that trend is reversing itself. I'm not sure the N.L. is going to reign supreme over the junior circuit anytime soon, but I do think the N.L. is getting just as good as the A.L.

This past weekend saw 41 interleague games with the A.L. winning 22 of those games while the N.L. managed 19 wins. Sure it looks like the A.L. won the battle, but I think the N.L. might win the war when interleague play is all said and done. Even if the N.L. loses the season series to the A.L., it sure seems like the N.L. is headed in the right direction.

When it looked like two good teams played two good teams, the NL seemingly had the advantage. The Cardinals took 2 of 3 from the Devil Rays and the Braves took 2 of 3 from the A's. The Angels did take 2 of 3 from the Dodgers, but the NL got a huge victory with my beloved Cincinnati Reds sweeping the Cleveland Indians 3 games to ZERO! That's what I'm talking about baby! The Yankees are down of course, but the Mets getting a 2-game sweep of the Bombers in the Bronx is a big win for the NL. A pretty big win in my opinion for the AL was the Blue Jays taking 2 of 3 from the Phillies. I think the Phillies are pretty darn good and the Blue Jays are fairly underrated because of their offense, but it was a big win for the Jays in my opinion.

So we are over the quarter mark in the 2008 baseball season and the stories continue to be the A.L. surprises of Tampa Bay, Chicago and Oakland. The A's are actually 1.5GB of the Angels but 2.5 games ahead according to run differential. The Rays are 1GB the Red Sox although they are even according to run differential and in the AL Central, the White Sox are right where they belong in the standings and in Pythagorean. It helps playing the San Francisco Giants! When Cleveland has to play Cincy, KC plays Florida, Detroit plays Arizona and Minnesota plays Colorado, you really have to wondering about scheduling because that was a huge advantage this weekend for the Sox. Credit the White Sox for taking advantage, but at this point, they got a helluva boost from interleague play.

The N.L. isn't surprising really any longer. Everyone is pretty much where they need to be. If anything, I'm still confused why Cincinnati isn't playing better although hammering the Indians makes me feel a little better and I think Houston is going to be a bigger factor than I first anticipated. Granted, Lance Berkman can't hit like this forever (can he?), but Houston is doing quite a few things right so they aren't going to go away because Berkman cools off a bit. I only was able to do the NL last week so let's start with the AL!

A.L. EAST

1. Red Sox 92-70; Last Week 3-3, Last 2 Weeks 7-6, Last 3 Weeks 12-7, RS-1st, RA-11th, Luck = +0.93
2. Rays 92-70; Last Week 4-3, Last 2 Weeks 9-4, Last 3 Weeks 11-8, RS-5th, RA-5th, Luck = +0.10
3. Blue Jays 79-83; Last Week 6-2, Last 2 Weeks 8-6, Last 3 Weeks 12-8, RS-13th, RA-3rd, Luck = +0.51
4. Orioles 79-83; Last Week 4-1, Last 2 Weeks 7-5, Last 3 Weeks 9-9, RS-10th, RA-6th, Luck = +2.10
5. Yankees 73-89; Last Week 1-5, Last 2 Weeks 3-8, Last 3 Weeks 7-11, RS-11th, RA-10th, Luck = +0.10

Seeing New York in 5th is incredible considering the talent on that roster. With New York tanking and teams like Baltimore and Tampa not doing poorly you almost wonder if a changing of the guard isn't taking place. That's certainly premature as I can't imagine New York being down for more than a season. I don't understand why people wouldn't expect a bumpy ride in the Bronx in 2008 when looking at the team as constructed, but the all the cards still allign themselves for the Bombers to be right back on top in 2009 if not 2008 as well. Boston: So Clay Buchholz is out with a broken nail and Bartolo Colon is coming up. With guys like Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson, Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester, the Red Sox have an embarassment of riches when it comes to starting pitchers. Having a guy like Colon with his track record be the guy you turn to because of injury is a pretty big advantage to have even if Colon isn't nearly the pitcher he used to be. I keep looking at the championship trends in the AL and there are basically 3 teams in the mix: Boston, Oakland and Chicago. They all have flaws that need to be worked out, but in Boston's case, those flaws are easily managed by good play. With the White Sox & A's, it's not so simple. The A's payroll isn't going up and unless Chicago starts to get a lot more work from older pitchers, their average pitching age isn't going up either. I'm no Red Sox fan, but we might as well get used to the fact of Boston heading back to the World Series and anything less than that is going to be a shocker. Remember that in 2004, the Sox were down 3-0 to the Yankees in the ALCS and in 2007 the Sox were down to Cleveland 3-1 in the ALCS. Boston v.2008 might just be better than Boston v.2004 or Boston v.2007. The bottom line is that every metric imagineable is saying the Red Sox are going to be playing in the World Series. It's a thought everyone better get used to...........Tampa Bay: Last year's #1 pick for the Rays, LHP David Price finally will make his professional debut this upcoming Thursday at Vero Beach. Price was the consensus overall best pitcher in the 2007 draft but didn't get to pitch professionally last season and has been injured since Spring Training. He's a power lefty out of Vanderbilt so it'll be really interesting to see how he does. He pitched in an extended spring training game this past weekend and struckout a rehabbing Alex Rodriguez. In that extended spring training game, Price fanned 10 hitters in 5IP. The Rays are struggling offensively at the moment although they do rank 5th in the league in RS/G. Even with that, guys like Longoria, Pena and Crawford are struggling quite a bit. Price is already 22-years old this season so it's not like we are talking about a 19-year old phenom. It's unclear how Price will pitch in the majors, but some scouts think his stuff is better than Scott Kazmir's which is a ridiculous compliment. The Rays have already brought up Evan Longoria which is a pretty big boost to morale, but with the team tied for 1st place, a David Price infusion in a couple of months won't do anything but improve the ballclube even more.........Toronto: The Blue Jays have massive hitting problems. It doesn't help that Frank Thomas owned a 77 OPS+ in Toronto and has bolstered that to a 112 OPS+ mark in Oakland. The Big Hurt's power has been non-existent so far in 2008, but maybe the Jays were a little quick to pull the trigger on that release. The big problem with Toronto at the moment is a complete lack of power. Thomas wasn't helping so why keep the guy on the roster? The problem is that guys like Overbay, Hill, Stewart, Rios and Wells aren't helping either. Remember a few years back when Vernon Wells was supposed to be the next big thing? He's had good years in 2003 & 2006, but this guy is a career 108 OPS+ hitter. There are a lot of teams like Toronto it seems with good pitching enough to be a real threat in a short series, but not enough hitting to do anything during the regular season. Typically there is a paucity of pitchers in the league, but on certain levels you can make the case that there simply aren't enough hitters. Then again, baseball would do well to contract 4 teams.......Baltimore: From April 30th to May 7th, the Orioles were 1-7 and during that span Brian Roberts hit 241/333/276. From May 8th to May 17th, the Orioles went 7-0 and Roberts hit 346/414/500. These are games of course that Roberts played in. There is a pretty big disparity in those numbers too with Nick Markakis and one in Luke Scott's numbers too, but as much as Markakis is the face of the franchise right now, Brian Roberts still represents a lot of what Orioles fans love about the game. I know from last season B-Rob was one of my favorite players probably because he was one of the few good ones along with Millar, Bedard, Guthrie and Markakis. I'm not sure how much longer Roberts is going to be wearing the orange and black, but he's put in a lot of good years for the Orioles. Speaking of future Orioles, Jeremy Guthrie had a really bad start in his first outing of the year and he's done his best to get away from it. Since his first start, Guthrie has made 9 starts and held a 3.43ERA with a K/9IP of 5.8. He's a little off the 2007 mark, but Guthrie is emerging as a quality starter that wasn't a one-year wonder. The problem with Baltimore is that they are doing enough to suck you in! Believe me I know! I'm close to getting sucked back in for 2008 and I hope that things don't fall apart they way they did in 2007...........New York: After 44 games in 2007, the Yankees were 20-24 and 10.5 games out of first place. The record is the same but in 2008 the Yankees are just 6GB in 2008. So is it time for panic in New York? The Yankees wound up 94-68 meaning they went 74-44 (.627) the rest of the way out. Is it impossible to think the Yankees won't do the same in 2008? Not really. The AL isn't as brutal as it's made up to be. The AL East has problems. Baltimore is essentially staying afloat with smoke and mirrors while the Blue Jays don't have any hitting. The Rays are incredibly young albeit good and Boston will always be a problem. With Detroit down and Oakland probably fading, why can't the Yankees emerge from a perceived weakened American League? The 2008 Yankees aren't all that different from the 2007 Yankees and with a healthy A-Rod and Jorge Posada back relatively soon, I see no reason why New York can't start winning if they start hitting. Darrell Rasner could be a guy that could win 12-14 games with some run support. Pettitte & Mussina are doing well enough on their own and if the Yankees offense turns itself around then you have no need to bring in Joba from the pen and you can split times with Hughes & Kennedy in the 5th rotation spot or get somebody else to fill it and leave Hughes & Kennedy in the pen. Earl Weaver wouldn't think it a bad idea and it could pay dividends in New York this season. There is still a long way to go, but in some ways, Yankees management is going to come under microscopic examination at some point at the way things are handled.

A.L. CENTRAL

1. White Sox 94-68; Last Week 5-2, Last 2 Weeks 9-5, Last 3 Weeks 9-10, RS-3rd, RA-4th, Luck = -1.96
2. Indians 93-69; Last Week 4-4, Last 2 Weeks 8-5, Last 3 Weeks 10-9, RS-9th, RA-1st, Luck = -3.35
3. Twins 78-84; Last Week 2-5, Last 2 Weeks 5-8, Last 3 Weeks 10-8, RS-8th, RA-8th, Luck = +0.42
4. Royals 72-90; Last Week 5-1, Last 2 Weeks 7-6, Last 3 Weeks 10-8, RS-14th, RA-7th, Luck = +1.95
5. Tigers 66-96; Last Week 1-5, Last 2 Weeks 3-9, Last 3 Weeks 6-12, RS-7th, RA-13th, Luck = -0.89

The Central despite showing good seperation regarding run differential is sort of bunched together. The Royals in 4th place are only 2.5GB of the first place White Sox and even Detroit is only 6.5GB. I suppose what the first quarter of the season has told us is that the White Sox & Indians are the real contenders in this division while the Tigers have been horrible and the Royals & Twins are sticking around for show. It's jumbled at this point and unless the Tigers start mauling the baseball, I wonder how long it'll take for the two lead horses to widen the gap. Chicago: Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, and Nick Swisher are still struggling at the plate, but their combined BABIP is .245 so a lot of what they are experiencing is bad luck at the moment. Another player experiencing bad luck is Mark Buehrle who's BABIP stands at .347. One thing that annoys me about how Ozzie Guillen is managing this team is the bullpen. When you look at Chicago's top-5 relievers (Jenks, Dotel, Linebrink, Logan, & Thornton), you see they've combined to appear in 91 games but have amassed only 85 innings. The relievers are averaging 0.93IP/G. With the starters averaging 6.2IP/GS, Guillen is averaging 3 relievers per game. Using this math, it puts Guillen on pace to get his top-5 relievers into 97 games each with each pitching 90.3IP on the season. A couple of other things to watch with the White Sox. Jose Contreras has a BABIP of .271 and a HR/9 of 0.3. Contreras career HR/9 coming into 2008 was 1.1 while his career BABIP was .296. Contreras is only striking out 4.7 hitters per 9 so he's not missing too many bats and his stuff is bolstered quite a bit by a lucky HR/9 and BABIP. His control has been good so far (2.7BB/9), but he could be a house of cards. The same could be said for Gavin Floyd. Floyd is 4-2 with a 2.92ERA but he's walked more than he's struckout and his K/9 is a paltry 4.02! His BABIP is an insanely lucky .193. That's 40% of the rotation right there. On the flip side, Danks & Vazquez aren't doing anything that looks unsustainable and Mark Buehrle is getting a bit unlucky. I'd like to see Danks get to 6IP/GS, but I won't be too picky given how well he's done so far.........Cleveland: The Tribe has massive hitting problems. The only regular with any kind of OPS above league average is Grady Sizemore who sports an OPS+ of 129. The next closest is Victor Martinez and his 103 OPS+ which puts him barely above league average. I don't know about the Indians. Could it be their windown has already closed? Think about it, I've written glowingly of Ryan Garko in the past, but he's struggling this season and when you take the blinders off, we are talking about a corner infielder who didn't play his first full season in the majors until he was 26-years old. Asdrubal Cabrera flashes good plate discipline but he's a banjo hitter. Peralta isn't that great. Both Delucci and Blake are past their prime and Franklin Gutierrez is already 25-years old, hasn't had a full year in the majors and shows plate discipline problems as well as no power for a corner outfielder. It's possible that with Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore all hitting like Hall-of-Fame players it can cover up those deficiencies, but when Martinez at league average and Hafner seemingly going into the tank, the Indians offense looks pitiful. On the other side of the ledger, you have a guy like Fausto Carmona who has done an incredible job, but he's walked 35 guys compared to striking out 22! His BABIP is .261 and his HR/9 is a miniscule 0.16! Even in 2007 it was 0.7! Carmona isn't a strikeout pitcher of course, but his K/9 has dipped to 3.5, down from 5.7 in 2007. His BB/9 has increased from 2.6 in 2007 to 5.6 in 2008! Paul Byrd has a 4.2K/9IP and a 1.9HR/9IP! I'm a huge Cliff Lee fan but his incredible start can't continue..........Minnesota: This simply isn't a good baseball team. Losing Neshek in the pen for the season hurts in my opinion and this team can't hit to save it's life. Joe Mauer and Delmon Young have still yet to homer and Mauer's OBP% has creeped up above his SLG% for crying out loud. Jason Kubel & Mike Cuddyer have a been a disaster so far at DH and RF respectively and given the power outage at C and LF, the Twins are left with only Justin Morneau. Morneau incidentally has a higher OPS+ (141) than he did in his MVP year (140). The slugger is on pace for 29HR and 125RBI which would easily lead the team in each category. For the most part, the Twins have absorped a lot of losses over the past couple of years regarding player personnel and they haven't had the minor leaguers step up and replace them. Francisco Liriano and Matt Garza were supposed to be the ace pitchers to replace Johan Santana when he inevitably departed. Garza is now pitching for Tampa and Liriano is in the minors, a shell of his former self. The Twins have done a great job so far getting to where they are, but with no hitting and your best pitcher arguably being Livan Hernandez, how can this not be a last place team by year's end..........Kansas City: During last night's no-hitter by Jon Lester, one thing stood out to me when looking at the box score and it was the fact that in the 61 strikes that Luke Hochevar threw to the Red Sox last night, not one of them was on a swing and a miss. Heading into last night's game against the Red Sox, Hochevar led the Royals starting pitchers with the biggest percentage of strikes thrown that came on a swing and a miss. I think it's a testament to a pitcher's "stuff" when he can make a batter miss the ball and get a lot of his strikes by simply blowing it by the hitter. Going into last night's game Hochevar led the Royals with 13.3% of his strikes being on swing and misses. He was followed by Greinke (12.4%), Tomko (11.9%), Meche (10.6%), Bale (9.3%) and Bannister (8.6%). After going 0 for 61 last night, Hochevar's percentage of swing & miss strikes dropped to 11.0% putting him behind Greinke (not surprising) and Brett Tomko (very surprising). Hochevar has started in 6 games with his bookend starts being bad and his middle 4 starts being incredible. In those middle 4 starts, Hochevar went 3-1 with a 2.52ERA and an average game score of 59. In his bookend starts he's o-2 with a 8.41ERA and an average game score of 30. Hochevar has the reputation of potentially being a frontline starter. We've seen glimpses in 2008 and the Royals really need him to be that guy to go along with Meche, Bannister and Greinke. The Royals can't hit worth a damn so their future doesn't have much change in it which means, well, they are sort of like a poor man's San Francisco Giants squad. That's not a compliment..........Detroit: Rick Porcello was widely considered the best pitching prospect in the 2007 draft. Even with David Price, Porcello probably had the higher ceiling because of his age. He's just 19-years of age coming in 2008 and the Tigers put him in the High-A Florida State league where right now the average age of the player is 23. Playing against competition 4-years his senior, Porcello in his first 9 starts of his professional career has gone 3-4 with a 1.72ERA! One of the big questions regarding Porcello was his command coming out of high school, but so far his BB/9 is 2.7 while his HR/9 is 0.2! Everything looks great, but Porcello's K/9 is sitting a very middling 5.4! That's surprising considering everyone was comparing this guy to Josh Beckett coming out of high school and said that he was a replica of Detroit ace Justin Verlander. I couldn't find anything about Porcello's pitch selection or restriction at Lakeland. He came into professional ball with the reputation of having a lights out fastball and a very good curveball and slider. His changeup was the worst of the 4 pitches so I'm wondering if they aren't letting him throw his breaking stuff and forcing him to pitch with his fastball and change? The control issues haven't been a problem and he's certainly keeping the ball in the yard. Still, I wonder why the K/9 is at 5.4? He can't possibly be throwing all of his pitches at this point. I'll keep looking around. Oh yeah, the real Tigers! I don't think it's nearly as bad as it seems. I still think the 0-7 start is jading. Without that the Tigers are 17-20 so if they go 3-4 in that stretch the Tigers are sitting at 23-24 and 2 games out of first place. No big deal. You certainly don't want to be 6.5 games out, but the bullpen has been solid behind Jones, Lopez and Seay. Supposedly Rodney and Zumaya are pitching this week and if they come back the Tigers have an incredible bullpen going 5-deep. That doesn't fix the rotation which has been brutal, but Justin Verlander is a lot better than he's pitched. So is Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson albeit bounce backs from those two guys is a bit tenuous. Starting the season 1-7 and pitching for a last place team doesn't make that Verlander for Cy Young pick very appealing. Then again, neither does my pick of Detroit winning the World Series! What kind of Savant am I?

A.L. WEST

1. Athletics 95-67; Last Week 1-5, Last 2 Weeks 5-7, Last 3 Weeks 8-11, RS-6th, RA-2nd, Luck = -2.29
2. Angels 83-79; Last Week 4-3, Last 2 Weeks 6-7, Last 3 Weeks 10-10, RS-4th, RA-9th, Luck = +2.34
3. Rangers 75-87; Last Week 4-2, Last 2 Weeks 9-4, Last 3 Weeks 13-6, RS-2nd, RA-14th, Luck = +1.22
4. Mariners 71-91; Last Week 3-3, Last 2 Weeks 5-8, Last 3 Weeks 6-13, RS-12th, RA-12th, Luck = -1.62

How about them Rangers? The teams I find it hardest to root for are probably the Marlins, Rockies, Rays, Diamondbacks and Rangers. Why the Rangers though? The Rangers have been around since 1961 so there is at least some history there and from 1993-1999 the Rangers were a pretty good ballclub. In fact, from 1993-1999 the Rangers won 562 games which ranks 4th in the AL over that span behind New York (637), Cleveland (613) and Boston (569). The Rangers had the most wins of any AL West team during that span and won 3 division titles in 4 years. They never got out of the division series losing to the Yankees all three times by a combined 9 games to 1. Oakland: Speaking of "stuff", Rich Harden gets 25.4% of his strikes on swings and misses. Back in the day when Tim Hudson claimed that Harden had better "stuff" than any of the big 3, he wasn't joking. In his 2nd start since coming off the DL, all Harden did the Braves is go 7IP allowing just 4 hits, 1 run and a walk while striking out 8 and not allowing a HR on his way to a victory. It was his best start of the year according to game score and Harden is just a ridiculously talented pitcher that can't stay healthy. If you don't look at his start right after coming off the DL, Harden has a 1.00ERA and a K/9 of 11.5! Adding in Frank Thomas is going to prove how dumb the Blue Jays were in getting rid of him. It's always a huge "if" but if Harden can stay healthy, the A's can win right now. The problem I think is that history speaks against the A's. They sport the youngest pitching staff in the leauge and the 4th youngest hitting team. Historical trends don't support a team this young getting to the World Series which might prove that Beane's "shit" doesn't work in the playoffs yet again. I'm not rooting harder for anything more than I'm rooting for an A's division championship.........Los Angeles: John Lackey finally made his 2008 debut and all he did in his first start is dominate the 1st place White Sox. Unfortunately for Lackey, Jose Contreras was on that day and the White Sox tagged the Angels bullpen for 5 runs en route a 6-1 victory over the Halos but posting a 64 game score in your return is something to take note of. I think for the most part it's been fairly difficult to get a feel for the Angels, but I think we'll start to see a bit more of their potential with Lackey back anchoring the staff. Ervin Santana and Jered Weaver have done good jobs while Jon Garland, Dustin Moseley and Nick Adenhart have been terrible. Joe Saunders has done well, but I'm hesitant to put him up with Lackey & Santana simply because his K/9 is 3.6! More than anything I'd like to see Howie Kendrick back in the lineup. In case you forgot, Kendrick is currently hitting .500! The Angels are hitting and now their pitching is getting healthy. One thing to note about the Angels is that they sport the 2nd youngest pitching staff in the AL which flies in the face of the championship trends.........Texas: In their last 23 games, the Rangers are 15-8 and have scored 140 runs (6.1 RS/G) and have allowed 109 runs (4.7 RA/G). In their first 23 games, the Rangers were 7-16 and scored 92 runs (4.0 RS/G) and allowed 142 runs (6.2 RA/G). They've gone from -2.2 to +1.4 which is a 3.6 runs per game turn around. So who are the real Texas Rangers? Part of it could be competition. In their first 23 games, the Rangers played the Red Sox, Tigers, Angels and Blue Jays 17 times. The other 6 games came against the Mariners and Orioles. In their last 23 games, the toughest opponent Texas has faced has been Oakland who they've played in just 6 of those 23 games, and besting the A's in 4 of them. The other games were filled up by the Twins, Mariners, Royals, and Astros. There is nothing about the pitching that says the Rangers are going anywhere, but you have to love the hitting. Josh Hamilton is on pace to have 39HR and 176RBI! Milton Bradley is on pace to have 29HR and 92RBI. Those guys themselves are worth going to the ballpark for. If the Rangers can keep hammering away at the bad teams while losing to the good ones, it makes them average but a few breaks go their way and the Rangers a .500+ club which is more than anyone expected of them........Seattle: Trading away Adam Jones looks dumber and dumber as the days go by. There really is no need for the Mariners to get into a huge war for Bedard when he becomes a free agent at the end of the season although I'm guessing to a degree it's almost necessary for them to invest in him so as not to make the Jones deal look that much worse. I really thought the Mariners had a window in 2008 especially with Lackey & Escobar starting the season on the DL, but the Mariners didn't capitalize on that window at all. The hitting has been poor as well as the pitching. Ichiro Suzuki is hitting 328/392/403 in his last 17 games so at least he's warming up. Seattle wasn't as good as their record indicated in 2007, but they made enough changes to improve by maybe a game or 2 and it just isn't happening. You almost wonder if they should start tearing the team down, but with Adam Jones playing for the Orioles, the Mariners look to be in win now mode and they aren't winning.

N.L. EAST

1. Braves 99-63; Last Week 4-4, Last 2 Weeks 7-6, Last 3 Weeks 10-8, RS-9th, RA-1st, Luck = -4.34
2. Mets 89-73; Last Week 3-3, Last 2 Weeks 6-6, Last 3 Weeks 9-8, RS-4th, RA-5th, Luck = -0.61
3. Phillies 88-74; Last Week 3-3, Last 2 Weeks 6-7, Last 3 Weeks 10-9, RS-8th, RA-6th, Luck = -0.31
4. Marlins 84-78; Last Week 1-5, Last 2 Weeks 7-5, Last 3 Weeks 9-9, RS-6th, RA-10th, Luck = +1.78
5. Nationals 64-98; Last Week 4-3, Last 2 Weeks 5-8, Last 3 Weeks 10-9, RS-14th, RA-11th, Luck = +1.12

Sort of like the AL Central in that all the teams are bunched up, the Braves have been the best team over the past 3 weeks although it hasn't been by much and they are in 4th place 2GB the first place Marlins who are a 4th place team regarding run differential. The NL East can argue they are the best division in baseball. It's the only division in which Pythagorean predicts 4 teams to finish with at least 84 wins. Atlanta: At some point you wonder if John Smoltz's career is finished. Smoltzie is 41-years of age and he's had injury problems before. The thought was move him to the bullpen where the Braves could surely use him, but even that is tenuous now. If it's the end of the road for Smoltz, he's a Hall-of-Famer. He has 210 career wins and 154 career saves. I think only Eckersley is the other guy with at least 200 wins and 150 saves in their career. It's odd to say this considering Smoltz has thrown almost 3400 innings pitched, but of the Big 3 in Atlanta during their glory years, Smoltz turned out to be the least healthy. He lost about 4.5 years to injury from 1998-2004. He came back as a starter in 2005 and in the next three years (2005-2007), Smoltz averaged about 15 wins per season. If you add the 15 wins per season to the 4.5 years he missed then you come up with about 67 wins, which added to his total gives him only 277 career victories. Maddux & Glavine are just a year older than Smoltz is, but Smoltz has retained his effectiveness for a longer period of time. Smoltz probably wasn't looking at the end of his career unless injury hadn't intervened and if he hadn't lost 6+ years of starting time to injury, the 1990s Braves could easily be sporting 3 pitchers with 300+ career victories. I think Atlanta's playoff future resided a lot with how well Smoltz would perform. They haven't been the luckiest team in the league so far in 2008 and that luck just keeps getting worse........New York: I got to watch both Mets/Yankees games this weekend and a lot of the talk Sunday night was whether or not Willie Randolph was on the hot seat and of course Billy Wagner's blow up at the media about being interviewed when he didn't play in the game. I think Wagner's backtracking of not calling his teammates out is silly because when you point to lockers and say "Shocker", how can it be anything but that? With Paul LoDuca's remarks last season and Wagner's comments this season, you have to wonder if the players simply don't get along in Shea? It's interesting from a drama perspective, but regarding the Mets on the field, I don't see anything to get worried about. The Mets are just as well off as any other team when looking at championship trends and seeing how we are only at 25% of the way done through the season, there seems to be much ado about nothing. What is something to get excited about is that Pedro Martinez could be back soon. I still think Pedro is an integral part of the Mets getting the World Series, which is what I predicted although I had them losing to the Tigers...........Philadelphia: Ryan Howard is on pace for 35HR and a .187 batting average! Brett Myers has an incredible stat line really. He's averaging 2.3HR/9IP for crying out loud which is amazing considering his other peripheral numbers. In his return to the rotation, Myers has a 7.6K/9, 2.4K:BB, 3.2BB/9 and an 11.2H/9. His BABIP is .335 and his ERA is 5.76. His IP/GS is a tiny 5.9 which isn't encouraging. Myers has pretty good stuff. Top of the rotation stuff to be honest, but in his return to the rotation, something seems odd. His strikeout rates and control are good to very good but his HR/9 and H/9 are atrocious. Some of that is tied up with his BABIP and luck, but those HR totals are scary. Myers is definitely a flyball pitcher having a 1.3HR/9 coming into the 2008 season, but this is ridiculous. It's not the park either. At least not for HR. Myers is averaging 2.3HR/9 at home and on the road, but his been getting killed away from Philly. At home Myers is 2-1 with a 4.31ERA. At home he strikesout 8.9 per 9IP and walks just 2.6 per 9IP. On the road it's 6.1K/9 and 3.9BB/9. He also sports a .381BABIP on the road. Cole Hamels keeps on being the ace he is, but it sure would be nice for Myers to even out his home/road splits........Florida: Here is interesting trivia for you. The Marlins are a 1st place team in a tough division with a lot of young talented hitters playing. They average 14,844 fans per home date. The other first place teams average: Boston (37,587), Chicago-A (26,875), Los Angeles-A (39,800), Chicago-N (40,144), Arizona (29,214). The Rays average 18,446 per game so they are about 4K ahead of the Marlins. What part of that equation doesn't baseball recognize that teams in Florida simply don't work? I suppose that if Florida and Tamap Bay are showing profits at the end of the day, it doesn't really matter what the attendance is or what the final record in the standings show, but last season, the Marlins were a last place team and averaged 16,920 per game which is about 21oo more fans per game for a last place Marlins team in 2007 than for a first place Marlins team in 2008. Last season the next closest NL team to Florida were the Pirates and they averaged 5K more fans per game than the Marlins. Isn't the Marlins experiment over yet...........Washington: The Nationals are terrible. It's odd in a way really. You think about the Nats and you think this team has Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman, Wily Mo Pean, Austin Kearns and Elijah Dukes. They should be able to score some runs. Nope! They stink. According to Baseball America, the Nationals have a top-10 farm system with the caveat being that so many teams graduated talented rookies that the Nats were able to climb the rankings list with one good draft in 2007. The Nats are still young, but clearly the best players are still in the minors. It would behoove the Nats to have just as good a draft in 2008 as they had in 2007.

N.L. CENTRAL

1. Cubs 107-55; Last Week 5-2, Last 2 Weeks 9-4, Last 3 Weeks 11-8, RS-1st, RA-3rd, Luck = -1.93
2. Astros 86-76; Last Week 4-3, Last 2 Weeks 9-4, Last 3 Weeks 13-6, RS-5th, RA-8th, Luck = +1.04
3. Cardinals 86-76; Last Week 3-4, Last 2 Weeks 6-8, Last 3 Weeks 10-10, RS-10th, RA-4th, Luck = +1.64
4. Pirates 75-87; Last Week 4-4, Last 2 Weeks 9-4, Last 3 Weeks 11-8, RS-3rd, RA-16th, Luck = +0.55
5. Reds 73-89; Last Week 6-0, Last 2 Weeks 9-3, Last 3 Weeks 10-8, RS-11th, RA-13th, Luck = +1.13
6. Brewers 70-92; Last Week 2-5, Last 2 Weeks 4-9, Last 3 Weeks 6-13, RS-12th, RA-14th, Luck = +0.96

Sometimes things just shape up the way you dreamed them to be. That is happening for the Cubs in 2008. The acronym Cubs typically means Considered Useless By September, and the Cubs of recent vintage haven't done anything to take us away from that concept, but at some point, inertia takes over and it certainly looks that way in Wrigleyville this season. The Cubs are simply dominating. They are the very best team according to run differential and they are the best team primed to get to the World Series regarding the championship trends wether discussing NL or AL teams. Chicago: The 2003 season was heartbreak city for the Cubbies as the curse of Bartman reared its ugly head and instead of getting the dream Cubs/Yankees World Series, we got Yankees/Marlins and a Marlins World Championship. Still, the quartet of Clement, Prior, Wood and Zambrano had Cubs fans salivating at the chance to win in 2004 especially when Greg Maddux came back home. Unfortunately, the Cubs finished 89-73 despite a Pythagorean that put them at 94 wins which would have been good enough for the Wild Card. No biggie. Prior & Wood were hurt anyway. In 2005, no Matt Clement and an injured Wood & Prior gave the Cubs a sub-.500 record and 2003 was becoming a distant memory. In 2006, Maddux gets traded to the Dodgers while Prior & Wood are injured yet again. The Cubs finished last. In 2007, the Cubs bring in Jason Marquis and Ted Lilly and win the division along with Rich Hill and Carlos Zambrano. It's odd to think the Cubs had Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Matt Clement and Greg Maddux and couldn't get it done, but guys like Sean Marshall, Rich Hill, Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis could. The Cubs are looking like a team bound for their first World Series since 1945 and they are doing it behind Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster and Jason Marquis. Baseball is odd sometimes.........Houston: The big story in Houston is Lance Berkman. He's on pace to hit .389-56-155. Surprisingly that wouldn't be enough for a triple crown because Atlanta's Chipper Jones is hitting .410 currently! Jones is on pace to hit .410-41-121. So far this season, Berkman ranks either 1st or 2nd in the following categories: AVG, SLG%, OPS, R, H, TB, 2B, HR, RBI, OPS+, RC, Adj batting runs, batting wins, extra base hits, times on base, Offensive W%, IBB, power/speed number, and AB/HR. I don't know who is the last person to hit liket hat, but I'm guessing it has to be Barry Bonds in one of his steroid filled years in San Francisco. The really interesting thing about the Astros right now is that according to the championship trends, they are definitely a team that could surprise you. They don't have age issues the way the Braves and Diamondbacks do and the categories they don't excel in are close to being within range. The story of Houston is the incredible year Lance Berkman is having, but don't count this team out. With everything moving right for the Cubbies, Houston might have to settle or the Wild Card if they can get it, but if Chicago slips and Houston keeps playing well, don't be surprised to see Houston be more relevant than I think a lot of us thought coming into 2008. The BIG PUMA is making sure of it........St. Louis: The Cardinals are still seemingly getting by without playing anyone. They have played 47 games and have yet to play the Braves, Phillies, Mets, Marlins, Dodgers or Diamondbacks! They are a combined 8-4 against the Reds, Cubs and Astros so St. Louis is certainly taking care of business on that end, but they flat out aren't playing anyone. They've not faced 7 of the top-8 teams in the league! The Cubs in contrast have already played Arizona, Philadelphia and New York. The Cardinals to this point are getting by with their pitching, but note also that the Redbirds rank 14th in the NL in strikeouts which can't bode very well for a sustaining pitching excellence. They are getting everything else right though. St. Louis ranks 4th in HR allowed and 4th in walks allowed. The Cardinals defense is picking up the slack too as they rank 5th in defensive efficiency. Seeing how St. Louis ranks 10th in the league in runs scored per game, the pitching is where it's at and when it comes to the peripherals, it's a mixed bag. It'll be interesting see how St. Louis holds up as the season goes on and the schedule toughens up a bit.........Pittsburgh: In case you haven't noticed, Pirates CF Nate McLouth is on pace for 44HR & 133RBI! McLouth's 12HR in 43 games so far this season is one off the 13HR he hit in 2007 in 137 games! He's already got 36RBI compared to the 38 he had all of last season! McLouth has never been seen as much of a power guy and his list is 5-11/195lbs suggest he's even smaller than that which portends to not much power unless you Gary Sheffield in which case you have a pair of wrists that God touched as you were coming out of the womb. My favorite Pirates blog is Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke. I began reading it probably 4-5 years ago I think and at first I thought Pat was an interesting guy but maybe had a take on baseball that didn't really fit with what I thought a baseball team should do to compete. Granted, being in Pirateland for that long can do that to a person, but Pat has definitely improved as a blogger to the point of being one of the best out there in my opinion as far as team specific blogs are concerned. He very much "GETS" the idea of not looking at a team or a game in a vacuum and definitely tries to piece each event within the context of the organization within a specific timeframe. It's very interesting if you love baseball. Anyway, here is a piece he wrote about the Pirates recently that pretty much sums everything up about Pittsburgh this far. It's a good piece and worth linking too, but like Pat, I too hope he's wrong...........Cincinnati: The best team in the NL Central the last week and the last two weeks combined head off to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers. For awhile I was worried a bit about Adam Dunn, but luckily in his last 13 games, the Big Donkey is hitting 279/377/791 with 7HR and 18RBI! That's in only 13 games folks! Griffey Jr. is playing better too. In his last 11 games, the Kid is hitting 310/408/357. You have to like the hitting and OBP% although Griffey's power is all but non-existent at this point. I don't think that's all together surprising. The Reds have some interesting decisions on their hands. A piece in this weeks ESPN The Magazine had Steve Phillips talk about the Reds and he talked about trading guys like Dunn, Griffey and Arroyo for other prospects who could take their place. Homer Bailey easily fills in the spot left by Arroyo while Jay Bruce fills in for Griffey Jr. in the outfield. As a Reds fan I don't know. What is for certain is that it's unlikely Dunn and Griffey are going to be back next season and with Volquez, Harang, Bailey and Cueto, it's not like the Reds need Arroyo. As a Reds Homer, I'd love to see the Reds win now, but maybe the Cubs are just too hot. Maybe the start for Chicago is too huge to overcome for Cincy even if the season is still young. When looking at the championship trends the thing that most stands out about the Reds is their atrocious defense. How can that get better? On a positive side, Bronson Arroyo in his last 3 starts has a 1.80ERA. Both Dunn, Arroyo and Griffey are heating up so that could make for some tough decisions, but decisions that could lead to Cincy getting quite a few good young players to plug in.......Milwaukee: Ryan Braun is on a bit of a tear. In his last 8 games he's hit 364/382/1182 with 8HR and 12RBI! Unfortunately in those 8 games he has just 1 walk in 34 plate appearances so imagine the numbers Braun could have if he was a bit more selective? That's really nitpicking with a guy who has a 1500+ OPS in his last 8 games and there is a valid point to be made about the other side of plate discipline being that when you do see strikes you hit them into orbit which Braun has no problem doing. The 2nd year player is now on pace for 48HR which would be 14 more than he hit his rookie season. It's a good thing that the Brew Crew fans have an opportunity to watch one of their sluggers go for 50HR for the 2nd straight year because things are getting ugly in Wisconsin.

N.L. WEST

1. D-Backs 102-60; Last Week 5-1, Last 2 Weeks 7-6, Last 3 Weeks 10-9, RS-2nd, RA-2nd, Luck = +0.24
2. Dodgers 87-75; Last Week 3-3, Last 2 Weeks 5-7, Last 3 Weeks 10-8, RS-7th, RA-7th, Luck = -1.09
3. Rockies 66-96; Last Week 2-4, Last 2 Weeks 5-8, Last 3 Weeks 7-12, RS-13th, RA-15th, Luck = -0.88
4. Giants 56-106; Last Week 1-6, Last 2 Weeks 3-10, Last 3 Weeks 6-13, RS-15, RA-11th, Luck = +1.37
5. Padres 54-108; Last Week 2-5, Last 2 Weeks 4-9, Last 3 Weeks 6-13, RS-16th, RA-9th, Luck = +0.89

According to Pythagorean, the N.L. has the 4 worst teams in all of baseball and 3 of them including the two worst reside in the NL West! The division has gone from most compelling to most lopsided in the matter of one season. The Dodgers are close but if the teams play according to Pythagorean from this point forward, LA winds up losing the West by 16 games! Arizona: After having a couple of average weeks, the D-Backs got back on track with a 5-1 record this past week. What really seperates the Diamondbacks out in my opinion and I'm sure everyone else's is their pitching. Sure it's great and Brandon Webb might be the best pitcher in baseball, but it's so deep it's ridiculous. They can throw out Webb, Dan Haren, Micah Owings, Doug Davis, Randy Johnson, Edgard Gonzalez and now rookie Max Scherzer who has only struckout 23 batters in his first 19.7 professional innings walking only 7 hitters! That's a rookie with a 3+ K:BB ratio and a K/9 of 10.5! And you really don't want to see these guys down to the road either because they are going to eat you up in a short series. If Arizona doesn't win a NL pennant it's not going to be because of the pitching. I'm still of the opinion that the hitting is a year off, but I doubt the hitting is going to prevent them from winning 100 games and blowing by the NL West.........Los Angeles: The two biggest veterans on the team, Jeff Kent & Andruw Jones, are actually the ones that are keeping the team down offensively. If Andruw Jones elects to have surgery on his knee he might be out for awhile which means the Dodgers sort of solve a problem for OF playing time by sliding Juan Pierre into CF and allowing Matt Kemp to stay in RF an Andre Ethier to move to LF on a full time basis. I'm not a big fan of Juan Pierre but the guy is trying and the .361 OBP% has to be commended even if he is an out making machine. The more I look at the Dodgers the more I think they are now a couple of year away. With Penny & Lowe not pitching so well early on this season, the Dodgers look like a team with an incredible nucleus of Loney, Kemp, Martin, LaRoche, Dewitt, Etheir, Billingsley, Broxton, Elbert and Kershaw. With Elbert and Kershaw still in the minors and LaRoche there too combined with how young the rest of the players are, the Dodgers have a very talented roster it would seem, but they sort of need to cut the dead weight like Kent, Garciaparra, Jones and maybe Lowe. If Lowe & Penny reach form this season they aren't out of it by any means, but the Diamondbacks are setting the bar pretty high...........Colorado: The Rockies can't hit and they really can't pitch. One thing that has made the Rockies somewhat formidable in the past is their ability to score oodles and oodles of runs given their ballpark. This squad isn't really doing that and I'm not sure they show any hopes of doing that either. Remember that before their big run at the end of 2007, the Rockies were pretty much a .500 team and they've done nothing to show they aren't except maybe being a little worse than that. That the Rockies wound up in the playoffs and in the World Series is probably more of an indictment of major league baseball's playoff system and the recent futility of the National League.........San Francisco: The Giants are doing two things well this season. As hitters they are doing a good job hitting doubles as they are 2nd in the league in that category. As pitchers they are good at striking hitters out as they rank 2nd in that category as well. Having guys like Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez and Matt Cain will do that for you. Peter Magowan is stepping down from the Giants and it's interesting to see what was going on with the Giants when he took over from owner Bob Lurie. Only Baseball Matters covers the story well giving a bunch of different quotes about the situation. To paraphrase it, former Giants owner Bob Lurie really didn't want to the team and the Giants as a whole were doing exceptionally poorly. Back in 1990 I was only 13-years old so a lot of this would have escaped me, but what is somewhat surprising is that in 1989 the Giants were in the World Series against the A's so it's interesting to note that it was considered the Giants were doing rather poorly. It might and probably does have a lot to do with Candlestick Park and how the Giants needed out of it. Apparently Lurie wanted a publicly funded stadium and the citizens of San Francisco basically told him to piss off which is what the citizens should have done. What I found most interesting is that an ownership group from Tampa Bay really wanted to get the Giants which would have been a DISASTER! Forunately MLB blocked the move and the Giants stayed in San Francisco. Magowan took over, got a privately funded stadium which is a beautiful park, signed free agent Barry Bonds and got the 2002 World Series. It's weird to think now that the Giants could be in Tampa Bay which would have been odd because I guess immediatley you would have had the TB Giants playing in the NL West which would have been horrible. It's weird in a way because I view the Giants as being one of the more storied teams in the NL. I think the Cubs, Reds, Cardinals and Dodgers are more storied than the Giants but being one of the top-5 storied teams in the NL is a pretty big deal. Tampa Bay finally got the Devil Rays but they can't make it work there so it would be a real travesty to see the Giants in Tampa Bay. I'm glad it didn't happen..........San Diego: With Jake Peavy going on the DL, things are looking a lot worse in San Diego and they weren't looking very good to begin with. I didn't think the Padres could win the West this season, but I also didn't think they'd be this bad. Sometimes everything turns out right and your team soars beyond expectations for a given year, but the opposite seems to be happening with the Padres. Can all of their players be this bad all at the same time? I'll agree they aren't better than LA or Arizona, but to think they are worse off than Colorado and San Francisco is ludicrous.

PLAYOFFS ACCORDING TO PYTHAGOREAN

Cleveland @ Oakland
Boston @ Chicago (A)
New York (N) @ Chicago
Atlanta @ Arizona

Not too shabby. When looking at everything on the whole, it sure does seem like a World Series between the Cubs & Red Sox. Just a few years ago you would have gotten laughed at for that suggestion. Not it seems like the most probable combination.

QUESTIONS? COMMENTES? E-MAIL ME! baseballsavant@gmail.com

I SURE WISH THEY'D REBUILD THEM



I absolutely hate that I won't see the Towers in real life unless they rebuild them. Despite every poll I've ever seen showing 70% of people want the original twin towers rebuilt in their original place, the powers that be believe we need the abomination that is called the freedom tower.

I sure do wish they'd rebuild them.

QUESTIONS? COMMENTS? E-MAIL ME! baseballsavant@gmail.com

INTERLEAGUE PLAY: YEAH IT SUCKS

Unfortunately for baseball fans, the dreaded interleague play starts up today. Good grief. Can we just end this horrible pox on the game of baseball already? I can maybe see the allure the first couple of years they tried it and the whole reasoning based on giving people a chance to see other players is just stupid now that you have things like MLBtv.com and DirecTV. Go buy MLB Extra Innings and you can see every player in the major leagues every single night if you choose to. I don't need the Texas Rangers to visit the Pittsburgh Pirates so I can make sure I see Hank Blalock play! It's silly. It destroys the integrity of the leagues and takes just a little bit away from the World Series if the two teams playing one another have played during the regular season.

More importantly, it absolutely destroys the schedule. Making baseball into a 2-leagues, 3-divisions with a Wild Card has done irreparable damage to the schedule and integrity to the league and introducing interleague play only maximizes that damage. It's utterly ridiculous. Let's take a look at some of the games that MLB has so kindly given us in the name of "promoting" interest in baseball.

Blue Jays @ Phillies: WOW! Don't get me started on this one! That huge rivalry between the people of Philly and the Canadians is so hot you just can't wait for a Phillies/Blue Jays tilt. The only way this series means anything is if it happened in October, which happened back in 1993 and if I remember correctly wasn't all that great even with the hype of playing for a world championship.

Brewers @ Red Sox: I don't see any connection here other than the two teams being old AL East rivals. However, if you believe some of the pundits, Milwaukee has always been an NL team. Still, I guess you could argue the Boston Braves became the Milwaukee Braves who became the Atlanta Braves so there is some connection. Still the Brewers are a completely seperate entity and the rivalry (which there isn't one to begin with) might be between the Atlanta Braves and the Boston Red Sox. How the Brewers/Red Sox matchup is beyond comprehension.

Marlins @ Royals: Another great interleague game! There is no justification for a matchup as meaningless as this one. I'd rather see the Royals play ANYONE in the AL more than I'd want to see them play the Marlins. As for the Marlins, I'd just rather see them contract than watch them play at all. I get the feeling that the citizens of South Florida feel that way too given attendance figures.

Athletics @ Braves: Another game that makes no sense. Maybe it gets interesting if Tim Hudson pitches against the A's, but the A's are so different than what they were when Huddy played for them it wouldn't even matter. The A's went from Philly to KC to Oakland. The Braves went from Boston to Milwaukee to Atlanta. There is no interplay and there certainly isn't any geographical rivalry. Atlanta is almost 3,000 miles away from Oakland and the two teams have never met in the World Series. It's just silly.

Rays @ Cardinals: Completely useless. It's the same as KC/FLA or ATL/OAK. The only teams that would sort of make sense for interleague play to work in St. Louis is maybe the White Sox, Twins, Royals, and Tigers and even then it's getting thin. Maybe the Indians. Those are the only teams remotely close to St. Louis to make them any kind of rival. Giving the Cardinals the Rays doesn't make any sense. As with the Marlins, I'd rather just see Tampa contract out as would most central Floridians.

Twins @ Rockies: Another useless rivalry. I don't see a connection here in the least. Was the only Denver team in the minor leagues every affiliated with the Twins?

Mariners @ Padres: This was one of the ridiculous "rivalries" baseball wanted us to buy into. HELLO! These teams are like 1500 miles apart. One at the upper left hand corner of the country and one at the lower left hand corner of the country. Plus, there is no significant history between the two teams. There isn't any history between the two teams at all! The only team remotely that could be considered a rival of the Padres in the AL is maybe the Angels, but the better interleague game would be the Angels/Dodgers, but even then it's silly because why? The big rivalry for the Dodgers in the AL is the Yankees going back to the Brooklyn days. As to the Mariners, the only real connection they have to an NL team might be the Brewers as the Brewers were originally the Seattle Pilots. The Padres may have rivals in Detroit or New York because those are the two squads that beat them in the 1984 and 2008 World Series respectively.

Tigers @ Diamondbacks: Useless. Another game that is just absurd.

White Sox @ Giants: Nothing makes sense about this game. The White Sox only real interleague rival is the Cubs while the Giants only real interleague rival is the A's. Pitting the White Sox against the Giants doesn't make any sense. The only thing it does is give the White Sox an advantage for playing a pitiful Giants team or is royally screws over the White Sox if the Giants starters get hot and beat them. I'd much rather see the Sox playing the Twins, Indians, Tigers or Royals than I would having them travel to San Francisco!

That's 9 interleague games we are seeing tonight and for this weekend. It makes up 18 teams (60%) and gives us nothing to root for. Baseball does try to do us justice with the some interleague games they feel are "built" for baseball. Let's take a look at those too.

Nationals @ Orioles: I guess this is a geographic rivalry although to be honest, the Nationals are really the Montreal Expos who have absolutely nothing in common with the Baltimore Orioles. In fact, the more I see the Nats, the more annoyed I am that the Expos are no longera team and then I start to think about how horribly Bud Selig handled the whole Expos situation and it makes me mad.

Indians @ Reds: This is supposed to be one of the better rivalries, but I just don't get it really. The Indians and Reds have never played against one another in a World Series and other than both teams residing in Ohio, there really isn't anything in common between them. I don't live in Ohio and have only been to Ohio a few times (to see my beloved Reds play) but I'm a Reds diehard and I can't recall one time in my 30 years on earth thinking, "Well, I hope we are better than the Indians at least." At the same time, I can't imagine an Indians fan hoping they are better than Cincinnati. The teams have virtually nothing to do with one another. They both play in Ohio so I guess that is supposed to be some big rivalry?

Mets @ Yankees: There is some postseason history to this one, but it's another overhyped media creation rather than a real rivalry. If I want to watch the Yankees play an NL team, I want that team to be either the Dodgers or Giants because those two teams came from New York. The Yankees have the one big rivalry with the Red Sox and it makes sense. The Yankees could also have a pretty big rivalry with the Orioles if the Orioles got their act together and the Angels are becoming a pretty big rivalry, but the Mets? It's like the Indians/Reds rivalry. Sure they both play in the same state and with the Mets/Yankees, they even play in the same city, but neither cares about the other. The Mets have two big rivals in Philly and Atlanta and before they went to 3 divisions, I would have said the Cardinals and Cubs were significant rivals of the Mets, but the Yankees? Nope.

Rangers @ Astros: A geographic creation and that's it. There are no rivals in the NL or AL or either the Rangers or Astros. Even now the Astros playing in the NL Central is odd when the other teams all reside in the Midwest. The Rangers are out in the middle of nowhere in the AL West. I like the two teams being in Texas and believe they should have teams, but the rivalries for these teams are almost non-existent. Maybe the Reds for Houston? I don't know.

Dodgers @ Angels: A lot like the Mets/Yankees or the Reds/Indians except there is no postseason struggle between these two teams. I guess because they play in the same city it makes them a rival, but it doesn't. If the Mets & Yankees aren't rivals, then certainly the Angels and Dodgers aren't.

That's 5 series or (18%). We get the Pirates/Cubs in the other series giving us an NL Central battle that is really the only game that is worth paying attention to because it involves teams that have vested interests in each other. What a novel concept.

Interleague play is truly a bizarre creation from the very worst commissioner baseball has ever employed. I try to understand it, but then this recent quote from Vox sums it up:

It doesn't surprise me that pundits are wrong from time to time. Everyone is, including me. What does surprise me, however, is when people continue to place their trust in those who are reliably and dependably wrong. Then, of course, I remind myself that most people are idiots and it all makes sense again.

Interleague play didn't work, hasn't worked and never will work no matter how hard MLB and the media hype it up. Still, people believe in it. Geez.

QUESTIONS? COMMENTS? E-MAIL ME! baseballsavant@gmail.com

LOOKING INTO THE VACUUM

I had to get in a baseball related post today! I've been meaning to post about this for awhile, but one of the more common mistakes I see when reading team specific blogs is the writer/fan inability to look at baseball as a whole rather than their individual team specifically. What I mean by that is that when writing about a team, you get very much wrapped up with that team and all aspects of the organization. This is tricky because the team isn't inherently playing against itself but against a myriad of other factors. For example, take the Toronto Blue Jays this season.

Immediately they have to deal with the Yankees & Red Sox in their own division so it's not just who Toronto has in their organization relative to everyone playing certain positions within the club, but rather how Toronto stacks up as a whole to the Yankees & Red Sox if they want to win a division title. A little further out, the Blue Jays have to deal with teams like Cleveland, Detroit, Los Angeles, Oakland and Seattle if they miss out on the AL East division championship but still wish to enter the postseason via the Wild Card. That adds a lot more variables to the equation.

A good example is quite a bit of Yankees fans sort of don't want to go after Mark Teixeira this offseason to fill in the hole at 1B left basically after Tino Martinez left (Giambi hasn't exactly filled in as expected) because they want to just keep the seat warm until Jesus Montero reaches the majors. The only problem is that Montero is an 18-year old catcher playing in Low-A ball right now. Assuming the kid gets to the majors at 22-years of age, he's got about 4 more years in the minors so what do the Yankees do in the meantime? It's not like you can just take 1B and use a stopgap because it's a position you need a great amount of offensive production from and if the Yankees don't get that between now and then, how are they supposed to win games? Not only that, but in the larger sense, who is to prevent a team like Boston or Seattle from going out and grabbing Teixeira? Boston seems unlikely after the deal they gave Lowell, but Seattle is losing Sexson at the end of the year and to a larger sense in the AL, the Yankees compete with Seattle for Wild Card purposes or even home field advantage if both are leading their divisions.

This cat and mouse game was played by both Boston and New York this past offseason with the trade of Johan Santana. I'm convinced that Boston didn't really want Santana given the shape of their pitching staff and I'm convinced that New York (although you could easily argue they need him badly) probably didn't want him either, but more than anything, neither AL East rival wanted the other to land a #1 starter like Santana. I wrote all along that the team that made the most sense was the Mets because it takes arguably the best pitcher in the game and puts him in the biggest media market while also making the NL a more relevant league because of a massive talent defecting to the senior circuit.

Another good example of this is what happened in Detroit this past offseason. The Tigers very much upgraded their offense at the expense of two young pitchers in Andrew Miller and Jair Jurrjens. It was a very risky move essentially because the Tigers already had a stellar offense. Bringing in Miguel Cabrera and signing him to a big deal makes sense because he's a fantastic hitter and exceptionally young so the Tigers indeed got a franchise cornerstone for the next several years, but in the meantime they gave up the two aformentioned pitchers and OF prospect Cameron Maybin.

In Detroit's defense, it's not like they aren't trying to screw their pitching over. Who could have thought Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander could be this bad? Or who could have imagined that Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya would be this unlucky after the 2006 season?

The point of course is that you always have to be thinking about what your competition is doing. Mark Teixeira is probably going to be the biggest name free agent this offseason I think. When you think about Teixeira going someplace you have to think about teams willing to spend a lot of cash with an obvious need for 1B/DH. I hesitate to put Teixeira in the DH spot because he's good defensively but this opens upa few more spots in the AL for him and those AL teams could also move their current 1B into some DH duty as well I suppose. Let's take a look at some teams and how this will affect them.

Yankees: After this season the Yankees will clearly have a need at both 1B and most likely DH. Teixeira makes a lot of sense for the bombers as they get an instant infusion of solid power and good defense at 1B while simultaenously moving into the new ballpark. Eric Duncan and Juan Miranda clearly aren't the answers when a 29-year old Mark Teixeira could be had for a 5-6 year deal that would give the Yankees until his age-34 season without much risk of his production going into the tank.

Red Sox: A little tougher to see because of the 3-year deal they gave Mike Lowell after the 2007 season. Having Lowell, Youkilis and Ortiz all in the lineup makes things a bit tough on the Sox. Lowell has to play 3B leaving Youkilis to play 1B and Youkilis is turning into a helluva defensive 1B as well. With Manny Ramirez coming off the books, the Red Sox could sure use the infusion of power given the state of David Ortiz's knees combined with the fact that the only true power hitters Boston has are Ramirez and Ortiz. My thought is that Boston wouldn't particularly like seeing the Yankees grab Teixeira so they might drive up price, but it's hard seeing Teixeira wearing a Boston uni in 2009.

Orioles: The Orioles were big names when Teixeira was being traded from the Rangers last season. The Orioles have money and Teixeira is from Maryland so there is some connection there. The big decision making for Baltimore would be whether or not the Orioles would be contending for a division title during Teixeira's stay in Baltimore? Offensively the Orioles could be there pretty soon with Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, Adam Jones, Billy Rowell, and Brandon Snyder. The big question could be the pitching side. It doesn't look bad with Guthrie, Cabrera, Erbe, Arrieta, Penn, Olson and Albers but who knows really? I'd say the Orioles to make it a good move to sign Teixeira long term should be competing for at least half the time. If they sign him for 6-years then they need to at least be competitive for 3 of them if not 4. I think that is a possibility for Baltimore. It has them competing in 2012-2014. Geez, it should move sooner than that you'd think.

Tigers: Detroit has money, but it's hard to see them going with Teixeira because Miguel Cabrera is likely to find a home at 1B I would think. He's not going to play 3B and I'm not sure his home is going to be LF either. The Tigers certainly don't have offensive problems so I'm guessing they won't go after Teixeira.

Angels: The Angels have shown a propensity to spend money lately with the signings of both Gary Matthews Jr. and Torii Hunter. Casey Kotchman has 1B locked up so there isn't a place for Teixiera to play. Interestingly enough the Angels have 2009 options on both Vladimir Guerrero and Garret Anderson. They'll definitely bring back Guerrero but I'm not so sure about Anderson. If Anderson doesn't come back, the Angels will have the DH spot open although I'm not sure they don't want Kendry Morales to eventually figure into that role. The Angels sort of don't make much sense for Teixeira.

Mariners: The Mariners make quite a bit of sense. After this season, they'll lose both 1B Richie Sexson and DH Jose Vidro and the team does need some offensive firepower. Raul Ibanez also leaves after this season and Adrian Beltre is a free agent after the 2009 season. The Mariners are definitely going to be in the mode of putting a team back together and filling the hole at 1B/DH with a guy like Teixeira would be just what the doctor ordered. It's a nice fit for Seattle if they choose to go that route.

If you take the Angels, Red Sox and Tigers out of the mix, then in the AL the race for Teixeira comes down to New York, Baltimore and Seattle. I could see there being a pull to both New York and Baltimore but not the Mariners. Teixeira grew up in Maryland so there is the ties to the Orioles and was a big Don Mattingly fan so there is the ties to New York. The Mariners could be a tough sell up in the Pacific Northwest when you have two storied east coast teams jockeying for your services. If we eliminate the Mariners then we are down to the Orioles and Yankees. So let's take a look at the NL. The NL is a bit different because Teixeira will need to play 1B which isn't a problem.

Mets: Delgado's 2009 option probably won't vest because he certainly isn't going to be anywhere near the MVP voting in 2008. Thus the Mets will be on the lookout for a 1B. It's hard for me to see either Nick Evans or Mike Carp being the answer for New York at 1B so the Teixeira sweepstakes should heat up in Queens. The Mets need a bat I would think. Everything is aligning for them well, but if Beltran isn't going to hit like an MVP and Reyes is just an above average SS then the Mets need another bat to go with David Wright. Teixeira obviously fits this bill.

Braves: Teixeira's current team, the Braves certainly wouldn't mind the former Georgia Tech player staying in the city he played his college ball. The Braves have something special going on. Chipper Jones is turning into Ted Williams as he ages into his late 30s which is amazing, but Teixeira could be an integral part to an exceptionally young Bravers squad. Atlanta could definitely spend the money if it had to and to keep the Braves relevant in the NL, signing Teixeira could be the best thing. They are so young at every position outside of 3B so grabbing up Teixeira wouldn't be too expensive to the overall bottom line I would think.

Giants: Nobody else in the West need a 1B. The Giants would be an interesting fit because their best prospect in the entire organization is 1B Angel Villalona. The problem with Villalona is that he's 17-years old! If the Giants gave Teixeira a 6-year deal from 2009-2014, Villalona would only be 24-years old the year after Teixeira left the Bay Area as a free agent. It's tough to think about really because the Giants seemingly have a pitching staff that could win now or at least make a pretty good run if they had some offense. The problem inherent in all of this is that maybe the timetable isn't as important since the Giants can spend money and maybe they can keep the core of their rotation intact over several years. The other idea is that just adding Teixeira to the mix isn't going to make them a division threat when you look at the NL West as a whole. Looking at San Francisco in a vacuum certainly makes them better by adding Teixeira but it doesn't make them that much better relative to league that it's worth it. Unless the Giants are massively rebuilding the team into a winner over night via the free agent market, the Giants probably would do well not to spend the money. However, if they were to land 2-3 sluggers like Teixeira, Adam Dunn and another bat combined with a couple of complimentary pieces, the Giants might not be as bad off as you think.

So for the most part, the teams most likely to pursue Teixeira after the 2008 season are the Yankees, Orioles, Mariners, Mets, Braves and possibly the Giants. The Tigers, Angels and Red Sox could be suitors I suppose but the picture there is a lot fuzzier than it is for the other teams.

This is where the whole vacuum issue has to come into play. For the Yankees, grabbing Teixeira makes sense because it certainly makes them much better offensively and it does provide some pop and plate discipline from a position they've been hurting at for some time. Teixeira also has good defensive skills so the Yanks wouldn't have to worry about that position defensively either. This in turn keeps Teixeira from Boston, Los Angeles, Detroit and Seattle, all teams New York has to compete with in some form or another.

For the Orioles, the vacuum is a little darker. Certainly grabbing up Teixeira fills a big hole being left behind by Kevin Millar with no immediate replacement, but the Orioles are still building up the team from within it seems. Having Teixeira is a pretty big piece I would think, but the big benefit to Baltimore in this regard is that it keeps Teixeira away from Boston & New York and allows them to probably have the positional advantage over both teams at 1B.

For Seattle the Mariners simply need the bat. With the Angels getting younger and better and Oakland following suit, there is more competition than ever within the division. Given that LA has Casey Kotchman and Oakland has Daric Barton, not only does signing Teixeira give the Mariners the best 1B in the division, but it probably also gives the Mariners the most talented power hitters within the division.

In the NL, the Braves & Mets could get into a nice little war for Teixeira with both having a pretty legitimate need for his services. The Giants are outside shots but Atlanta and New York could very much use Teixeira in a variety of ways. The Mets certainly need him to replace a struggling Delgado to go along with Wright and Beltran. This is especially so because Moises Alou is only getting older. The Braves certainly need him as the middle of the lineup power threat to hit behind Chipper Jones. With the Braves being so young in the lineup, adding in a proven power bat like Teixeira would give some placidity to the lineup.

The Giants are long shots because they'd have to make so many more moves than just signing Teixeira.

If Teixeira wants to win, then he automatically eliminates the Orioles & Giants from contention leaving the Mets, Braves, Yankees and Mariners as his only suitors. To be honest, the Mariners could be in for a massive overhaul as well with Ibanez, Sexson, Beltre, Vidro and most likely Erik Bedard leaving the squad. That team might be blown up fairly quickly made all the more likely by the incredibly slow start they've had after going after both Carlos Silva and Erik Bedard in the hopes that they could build off their 2007 season.

That leaves the Braves, Mets and Yankees. With the bidding war that is likely to ensue between the New York teams, that probably prices Atlanta out unless Teixeira simply loves the Braves and stays for a contract that would probably be less than what either the Mets or the Yankees would offer.

Having said that, the only real suitors for Teixeira are the Yankees and Mets. Given the need for another power bat to go along with Alex Rodriguez and considering all the money leaving the payroll over the next couple of seasons, there is no way Teixeira is not wearing pinstripes in 2009.

But keep in mind the vacuum. It's easy to see the Yankees signing Teixeira from a money point of view, but this is actually a real need for New York. Letting guys like Abrue and Giambi leave make a lot of sense because they aren't contributing, but it also was a very good choice for New York to pass on trading prospects for Johan Santana this past offseason. Looking into the vacuum for New York, I still believe that keeping the trio of Hughes, Kennedy and Chamberlain together was a big step in the right direction for New York even if it means some growing pains in 2008.

That isn't the case for Teixeira. The Yankees clearly need an impact bat and they clearly are getting a lot of money off the books at exactly the right time. Peering into the vacuum made not trading for Johan Santana a good decision, but peering into that same vacuum makes signing Mark Teixeira almost necessary for the Bombers. Interestingly enough, the vacuum for the Mets made signing Santana a good deal and it also says signing Teixeira is a good deal as well!

It's not getting much air time yet, but what the Braves do with Teixeira at the deadline and what Teixeira decides to do in the offseason are going to be a couple of the more interesting storylines in baseball for 2008.

QUESTIONS? COMMENTS? E-MAIL ME! baseballsavant@gmail.com

WHY THE SOPRANOS IS TRULY GREAT

Below is a clip of my favorite scene in the TV show Lost. It's during the Exodus Part 1 episode where Jack is going to the Black Rock to get dynamite and Sawyer is going off in the raft. Jack comes to give Sawyer one of the guns they had on the island and Sawyer decides to relate to Jack the night Sawyer talked to Jack's father in Sydney and all the things Jack's father wished he could have told his son.



It's a great scene and by far my most favorite. After my 2nd year of med school, I wanted to go back and watch the first season of Lost so this is why I'm thinking about that particular scene. I think so far it's been by far the most dramatic involving my two most favorite characters on the show.

How does this relate to The Sopranos? Because as great as Lost is, and I think it's great, it simply doesn't compare. Below is one of my most favorite scenes of The Sopranos when Carmella tells Tony about how she's been dreaming about Furio and they get into a fight. This is in the Season 4 season finale entitled "Whitecaps". It's breathtaking.



Just incredible. What seperates The Sopranos is that while I can only think of the one scene in Lost, I can think of 100 scenes in The Sopranos like the above that literally are so good you can't believe it. I really believe two things ruined television and movies for me practically for life. The first is The Sopranos because no matter what, nothing is even remotely close to the degree of its brilliance. The other is the Lord of the Rings triology. Those two things are so good that almost everything else fails miserably. The Wire comes pretty close and it's easily the 2nd best TV show of all time behind The Sopranos, but I still think it's a notch below the boys from the Bing.

Anyway, I don't write too much about TV/Movies, but these are two scenes that are incredible and it gives me a chance to show The Sopranos even more love!

I hope I didn't ruin any plot lines for those of you not watching Lost or The Sopranos. If you don't watch them you should. Especially The Sopranos.

QUESTIONS? COMMENTS? E-MAIL ME! baseballsavant@gmail.com

N.L. PYTHAGOREAN RECORDS THRU MAY 11, 2008

Step 1 is on the way so I'm probably going to break up Pythagorean into the two leagues for awhile. I've noticed that the entries are entirely too long when I combine the leagues, plus I get two days out of Pythagorean instead of one. I can focus in on the teams a little better too when I only have one league to do at a time. I hope the Savantonians don't mind.

Is it just me or does there seem to be an extraordinary amount of injuries going on in baseball? This past week we lost Pat Neshek, Vernon Wells, and Yovani Gallardo just to name the three right off the top of my head and the injury bug doesn't seem to be leaving us alone anytime soon. It's gotten so bad, even stalwart beacon of health Mark Prior is feeling shoulder tightness out in San Diego! How could I pass up a shot to rip on Prior?!

You know what else is interesting? It's the beginning of play on May 12th and the Florida Marlins hold the best record in all of baseball at 23-14! The first 5-6 weeks of this season have been odd. Nothing is going the way we all thought it might. Detroit & Cleveland aren't playing so well in the AL Central. The Yankees are at .500. The A's might be the best team in the AL while the Mariners are in the tank. Over in the NL, the Florida Marlins are in first place for crying out loud. The Cardinals have played exceptionally well while Milwaukee has been in the tank. Arizona got off to an incredible start while the Padres might be the worst team in baseball. Lots of storylines of course, but it almost seems as if there aren't any we expected. I guess we expected the Red Sox to be this good and the Cubs too.

In the end, it's hard to see teams like Boston, both New Yorks, Cleveland, Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Chicago, Arizona and the other Los Angeles not rise to the top like we certainly expected. Still it makes for some interesting times and certainly changes the outlook on the season with this kind of early start. The N.L. is up first my brothas!

N.L. EAST

1. Braves 102-60; Last Week 3-2, Last 2 Weeks 6-4, Last 3 Weeks 9-8, RS-5th, RA-1st, Luck = -4.12
2. Mets 88-74; Last Week 3-3, Last 2 Weeks 6-5, Last 3 Weeks 9-9, RS-5th, RA-9th, Luck = +0.03
3. Marlins 88-74; Last Week 6-0, Last 2 Weeks 8-4, Last 3 Weeks 12-7, RS-7th, RA-7th, Luck = +3.01
4. Phillies 85-77; Last Week 3-4, Last 2 Weeks 7-6, Last 3 Weeks 12-8, RS-9th, RA-6th, Luck = +0.42
5. Nationals 60-102; Last Week 1-5, Last 2 Weeks 6-6, Last 3 Weeks 10-9, RS-14th, RA-14th, Luck = +0.93

It's going to be hard to prevent an NL East player from winning the MVP I think. Right now there is no doubt that Chipper Jones is hitting the fire out of the ball, but Chase Utley can make a case too. The championship trends don't like Atlanta because of their youth in the lineup which is odd because the 36-year old Jones is their best hitter. Still, Atlanta is incredibly unlucky so fate might have already told Atlanta's story. Atlanta: The Braves finally picked up their first 1-run victory of the season against the Padres, beating the Friars 5-4 last Thursday. Unfortunately for the Braves, their road woes continue. They lost 3 of 4 to the Pirates at PNC Park driving their road record down to 5-14. Interestingly enough, their road RS is 71 while their road RA is 74. That's a Pythagorean of .479 meaning they should be 9-10 instead of 5-14. You give the Braves 4 more wins then their record stands at 23-14 and all of a sudden the best record in the majors resides in the A-T-L and not in South Beach. Something interesting to keep in mind with the Braves is their pitching BABIP of .280. The Braves lead the NL in fewest hits allowed and fewest HR allowed. Losing John Smoltz in the rotation is a brutal development although if Smoltz does go back to the bullpen, he adds some serious stability out there. Something the Braves haven't had since he left the pen. Still, the Braves are relying on a top-3 rotation of Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens and Tom Glavine. That's iffy although to be honest, it's no worse than some of the other rotations teams in the NL are competing with. At this point, it's hard to see how New York and Philadelphia don't start running away with it. However, be aware of Chipper Jones. If Jones hits .400 for the year and stays healthy, then anything could happen. Given how much control he seems to have over every swing he takes, I'm not sure I'd bet against him.......New York: A player like Jose Reyes is really damaged by today's statistical analysis. Over the past few days I've read different chats with people writing in defending Reyes because he scores runs, steals bases and hits triples and being a lifetime .283 hitter. Unfortunately for Reyes, those sorts of stats don't mean all that much. Triples are cool, but players score from second in a single too so grabbing 3B isn't much of a difference. Scoring runs is OK, but it's dependent upon a teammate driving you in. Stealing bases is sort of undervalued in my opinion, but if Reyes is hitting at the top of the lineup, it loses tremendous value because if you want your 3-4 hitters to hit doubles and HR, then taking an extra base only distracts the hitter and allows the pitcher to have pitches that the hitter isn't swinging at. Plus, whether Reyes is on 2nd or 1st doesn't matter much when David Wright homers. So once again, Reyes is stealing bases, hitting triples and scoring runs, but his OPS+ is sitting at 104. The NL has an OPS of .741 for SS currently. Reyes is better than that due to his .769 OPS. It's better, but Reyes is sometimes considered a star and he's really just a tick above average. It's interesting to see the media hype over actual results. Sort of like Derek Jeter winning gold gloves.......Philadelphia: Should anyone be concerned about Ryan Howard? My guess is no. His career BABIP right now is .341 while at the moment, his BABIP so far in 2008 is .215! Howard is running into massive bad luck at the moment that simply won't stop. He's on pace for 29HR so his power is down quite a bit, but his plate discipline hasn't eroded. He's always had massive contact issues but when he has connected with the ball, he's hit it exceptionally hard. Right now his flyballs are staying in the yard and the balls he's hitting on the ground are right at people. The Phillies rank 9th in the NL in RS/G which is way too low and a lot of that has to do with Howard not hitting and Jimmy Rollins being on the DL. The one thing you can't blame is the pitching. The Phillies rank 6th in the NL in RA/G and if the offense was hitting like it should, then the Phillies would be a major contender in the NL. They still are and the hitting should come around.......Florida: So the Marlins locked up Hanley Ramirez for 6-years/$70 million! Assuming the deal starts in 2009, the Marlins buy out the next 3 arbitration years for Ramirez plus 3-years into his free agency. If the deal starts next season, then the Marlins will be getting Ramirez for $11.7 million/year from his age 25-30 seasons. Not too bad considering that he might have 1-2 more prime years after that (ages 31-32) and it's likely his couple of peak years will be in his rearview mirror. It's a helluva move considering Ramirez had a 145OPS+ last season and right now has a 160OPS+. Ramirez was a dynamite prospect coming up in the Boston organization and is simply fulfilling promise. It's very interesting times in Florida. According to Pythagorean, the Marlins are an 88-win team, but they are getting a bit lucky so if they took their record as it stands and played to Pythagorean for the rest of the season, the Marlins would finish 91-71. WHOA! That's pretty amazing really. I'm almost convinced that 91-wins would be good enough for the division. Acutally it wouldn't. If Atlanta played to its Pythagorean the rest of the way, the Braves would wind up 98-64, but Atlanta seems snakebit. By the way, when did Dan Uggla become a beast? In his last 15-games, Uggla is hitting 367/468/1000 with 9HR! GOOD GRIEF! Jeremy Hermida has seemingly put his HR slump behind him too. In his last 16 games, Hermida has hit 364/400/545 and he's on a 2-day homer streak. Everything is going well for Florida but the starting pitching has to step up. Scott Olsen has seemingly figured it out which is great news, but there isn't much behind him. Andrew Miller has a lot of potential, but they need some help.........Washington: The Nationals have a lot going wrong. There aren't any hitters on this team. When you start thinking Dmitri Young can make a difference you know you've hit bottom. Ryan Zimmerman is having a rough go at it and despite his walks, Nick Johnson isn't doing anything. The bullpen outside of Jon Rauch is abysmal and the starting pitching has a solid ERA number, but the rest of the peripherals aren't any good. You add all that up and there is no questioning the fact that Washington is a last place team and might well wind up with the worst record not only in the NL but in all of baseball. When I was following the Orioles all year long last season, I came to really like the fans of that area, and doesn't it seem like the Baltimore/DC/Northern Virginia geographical area deserves better baseball than the Orioles and Nationals are giving them? Kudos to the Orioles for finally giving up and rebuilding, but what the Nationals are doing even I can't figure out.

N.L. CENTRAL

1. Cubs 104-58; Last Week 4-2, Last 2 Weeks 6-6, Last 3 Weeks 10-9, RS-1st, RA-3rd, Luck = -1.71
2. Cardinals 92-70; Last Week 3-4, Last 2 Weeks 7-6, Last 3 Weeks 11-9, RS-10th, RA-2nd, Luck = +0.80
3. Astros 90-72; Last Week 5-1, Last 2 Weeks 9-3, Last 3 Weeks 14-5, RS-8th, RA-5th, Luck = -0.05
4. Pirates 74-88; Last Week 5-0, Last 2 Weeks 7-4, Last 3 Weeks 10-8, RS-4th, RA-16th, Luck = +0.63
5. Brewers 71-91; Last Week 3-4, Last 2 Weeks 5-8, Last 3 Weeks 8-12, RS-12th, RA-12th, Luck = +1.80
6. Reds 68-94; Last Week 3-3, Last 2 Weeks 4-8, Last 3 Weeks 7-12, RS-13th, RA-13th, Luck = -0.90

The Astros right now are the hottest team in the NL. After ripping off 14 wins over the past 3 weeks, the Astros have forced the issue of their relevancy and have moved to within 1.5 games of the division leading Cubs. That's crazy talk when you look at that roster. Should the Cubbies be worried about the Disastros? Chicago: Everything the Cubs did this past offseason has seemingly turned to gold. They decided on going with Geovany Soto as the fulltime catcher and he's rewarded them with a 156OPS+! The Cubs went out and got Japan's version of Bobby Abreu and Fukedome has been even better with an OPS+ of 131 and an OBP% of .423! Derek Lee is fully recovered. Brian Roberts has an OPS+ of 105 while Mark DeRosa's OPS+ is 110! Move Ryan Dempster back to the rotation? All he's done is 4-1 in 8 starts with a 2.76ERA and has averaged 6.1IP/GS. Thorw Kerry Wood in as closer? Wood has saved 7 games and without his 2 horrible outings on opening day and May 1st, Wood's ERA would be 1.06 instead of 3.79. The only thing not working in Wrigley is Rich Hill, and even with his massive control problems at the big league level, Hill still had an ERA+ of 107 and was striking out 7 hitters per 9. Don't look now but Ted Lilly is warming it up! In his first 4 starts, Lilly went 0-3 with a 9.16ERA over 18.7IP (4.7IP/GS), but in his last 4 starts, Lilly is 3-1 with a 2.42ERA over 26IP (6.5IP/GS). Lilly is a definite #2 starter who's a #1 on his best days and with Zambrano starting to pitch like a #1 again, the Cubs rotation looks solid.......St. Louis: The Cardinals have done the best they have early on, but right now that 23-17 record looks massively empty. If you believe the best teams in the NL are Philly, New York, Atlanta, Florida, Arizona, Los Angeles and Chicago, then the only one of those 7 teams the Cardinals have played has been the Cubs and that was for 3 games. Against the worse teams in the NL, the Cardinals have played 37 of their first 40 games! Talk about scheduling! To St. Louis' credit, they've played the Cubbies 3 times and beaten them twice, but they've played the Brewers 9 times already, the Giants 7 times and the Rockies 7 times. A couple of years ago, playing out West was looked upon with admiration, but now it's like beating the little league teams around when you are an all-city high school shortstop. The Redbirds have lost 5 of 6 so the walls are starting to cave a bit. When the competition heats up, it'll be interesting to see if the Cardinals stay or get out of the kitchen. From June 17th thru July 13th, the Cardinals will play 28 games with 19 of them coming against the Red Sox, Tigers, Phillies, Cubs and Mets.......Houston: The Astros are 16-5 in their last 21-games so what is going on? The first notion is that the team is 7-3 in games decided by 1-2 runs. That's running good on their part. The Astros are also 1-0 in extra inning games. They've also went 9-0 in their home games during that span which is incredible. Those 16 wins have come against: Giants (1), Dodgers (3), Nationals (2), Brewers (3), D-Backs (1), Cardinals (1), Reds (2), Padres (2), Rockies (1). Against the good teams in the NL, the Astros went 5-4 (2-4 against the Cards and D-Backs, 3-0 against the Dodgers) and against the poor NL teams, the Astros went 11-1! Don't get me wrong in disqualifying the Astros & Cardinals because they've taken advantage of easy schedules. They should be and winning teams do. However, judgement should probably be reserved when thinking about longterm results. The good news is that Lance Berkman has morphed into Mickey Mantle, hitting 393/470/800. Berkman is on pace for 54HR and 158RBI! Miguel Tejada and Carlos Lee are doing their part to chip in, but the rest of the offense is terrible. Also, Houston is parlaying a great bullpen to hide the deficiencies in the rotation. Oswalt isn't as bad as it looks. His April 5th and April 11th really skew the stats and in his last 6 starts, Oswalt is boasting a 3.51ERA and averaging 7IP/GS. He couldn't have gotten off to a worse start than his first 3 outings. His average Game Score in his first 3 starts was 29. In his last 6 starts, it's been 56! It's a lot of "ifs" for the Astros. Wandy Rodriguez comes back at the end of May and if Houston can hold on, then it could get really interesting. Berkman has to keep carrying the offense in much the same way as Chipper Jones is carrying Atlanta, but both Houston & Atlanta can get very interesting if all the variables click.....Pittsburgh: If you add up the OPS+ numbers of the outfielders (Nady, Bay & McLouth) and add the OPS+ of the catcher (Doumit), the Pirates would get a number of 584 or an average OPS+ of 146. The Pirates rank 4th in the NL in RS/G and the question is whether or not there is a better hitting quartet of outfielders and a catcher in the NL? The answer is that there isn't one at the moment! The Bucs are 9-5 in their last 14 and went 5-0 last week pushing that winning streak to 6 by taking the first in a double dip at home against the Braves before losing the night cap 8-1 on Monday night. The Pirates can make life hard on opposing teams when Gorzelanny and Snell are on their games. What's been exciting for me is watching Gorzelanny get back to being good. In his last 3 starts, Gorzelanny is 2-1 with a 2.60ERA. Gorzelanny has made 7 starts and in two of them he's not lasted past the 3IP and gave up 7ER in both. In those other 5 starts, Gorzelanny has gone 3-2 with an ERA of 2.73! It's not all rose colored though or Gorzelanny. In those 5 starts his K/9 is a paltry 4.8 meaning something isn't quite right yet. He struckout 6.0 batters per 9IP in 2007 so it's getting closer for Tom. He's going to get there.........Milwaukee: Yovani Gallardo is done for the season and this effectively ends the Brewers season along with it. The Brewers had a great shot at getting to the postseason and really being a force if both Gallardo and Sheets were to stay healthy (or at least healthy in the postseason after the Brewers already qualified for the playoffs) and the offfense was humming. The offense has stunk so far this season (12th in the NL in RS/G) and the starting rotation takes a huge hit with no Gallardo. The bullpen is in a quasi mess with Eric Gagne losing the closer's role and all of a sudden the Brewers look like a team just trying to survive rather than a team setting the pace for the N.L. At least Ryan Braun is starting to be a force again. He's hit 4HR in his last 2 games and over his last 20 games, he's hitting 345/389/690 with 6HR and 17RBI. He's even walked 6 times in 84AB (14.0AB:BB) which is pretty good for the slugger........Cincinnati: It's insane for the Reds to have this much talent and be in last place! I wrote about Bronson Arroyo looking to turn things around last week and this past Saturday is exactly what he did. Keep in mind that going into Saturday, Arroyo's BABIP was a insanely high .404 while his K/9 was 8.1 and his K:BB was 2.2 and his BB/9 was 3.6. His HR/9 was an outlandish 2.2/9IP but for the most part, these weren't the ratio of a pitcher who sported an ERA of 8.63. Then Saturday happened and Arroyo 8IP of 4 hit ball striking out 9 and allowed just 2 walks with nary a HR. Arroyo's BABIP for that game was .227 and he didn't give up a HR. Keep in mind that for his career, Arroyo's HR/9 is 1.0 so that 2.2 number was ridiculous. Arroyo lowered his ERA from 8.63 to 7.14 in that one start and it's likely to keep coming down. Despite the great effort, Arroyo's BABIP is still .378 and his HR/9 is still 1.8. Arroyo is going to have quite a few more great games to get those numbers to normalize. What this means for Cincinnati is that they have a devestating front-4 of Harang, Volquez, Cueto and Arroyo. This isn't even counting on uber-prospect Homer Bailey giving Cincy possibly the best rotation from 1 to 5 in the majors. You want to know why the Reds have sucked? Look no further than Adam Dunn (95 OPS+) and Ken Griffey Jr. (85 OPS+)! Who would have thought the Pirates would flat out laugh in the Reds face if they offered up Grieffy and Dunn for McLouth and Nady straight up? There is no way Cincy should be this bad.

N.L. WEST

1. D-Backs 100-62, Last Week 2-5, Last 2 Weeks 5-8, Last 3 Weeks 10-10, RS-2nd, RA-4th, Luck = -0.43
2. Dodgers 89-73, Last Week 2-4, Last 2 Weeks 7-5, Last 3 Weeks 12-7, RS-3rd, RA-7th, Luck = -1.29
3. Rockies 66-96, Last Week 3-4, Last 2 Weeks 5-8, Last 3 Weeks 6-14, RS-11th, RA-15th, Luck = -0.46
4. Giants 58-104, Last Week 2-4, Last 2 Weeks 5-7, Last 3 Weeks 8-11, RS-15th, RA-11th, Luck = +2.29
5. Padres 57-105, Last Week 2-4, Last 2 Weeks 4-8, Last 3 Weeks 5-14, RS-16th, RA-10th, Luck = +0.56

The West was everyone whipping boy last week. Combined the division went 11-21 while the Central went 23-14 and the East went 16-14. The West sorta sucks to be honest. With Arizona coming back to the pack a little bit and LA sort of floundering this past week, west coast baseball is relegated to the AL and even then it's not so hot. So far it's been a big down year for baseball west of the Mississippi! Arizona: After getting roughed up in his first start, Max Scherzer comes back in his second start against the Cubs and doesn't allow an earned run thru 6IP while striking out 6 hitters, allowing 5 hits and a walk. The 23-year old now has a 3.14ERA which is problem enough, but his K/9 is 11.3, his K:BB is 6.0, his BB/9 is 1.9 and his HR/9 is 0.0! That's not a guy who is screaming he needs more time in AAA. When Doug Davis comes back, the D-Backs will have Randy Johnson, Doug Davis, Brandon Webb, Micah Owings and Dan Haren in the rotation. I can't imagine Scherzer going back to AAA so the D-Backs will some decisions to make. He could come out of the pen as a long reliever which probably is the best idea when you think about it, but if the D-Backs don't do that, then either Johnson or Davis isn't going to be starting any longer. It's a helluva problem to have. The bottom line is that Webb, Haren, Scherzer and Owings are going to be around awhile and their average age is 26-years of age! Sure Arizona is coming back to the pack, but they are still on pace for 98-100 wins and you simply don't want to see that rotation in the playoffs..........Los Angeles: Andruw Jones' BABIP heading into 2007 was .286. His BABIP from 2007-2008 has been .247. He's running into an extended period of bad luck, but you almost wonder if he's not hurt or something. His line drive percentage is pretty low at 14.7%, but in 2005, his LD% was 15.8% and his OPS+ in 2005 was 136 and he finished 2nd in the MVP balloting. What really sticks out in that statistics is that his fly balls aren't going for HR anymore. His HR/FB has been 19.4% of his career, but in 2007 it was 13.4% and in 2008 it is 3.1%. That could be indicative of Jones losing quite a bit of power, but wow did that happen pretty fast. He goes from hitting 92HR from 2005-2006 to just 26 last season and only 1 so far in 2008. It's really wild considering Jones is only 31-years old! I can't imagine the end being remotely close for him, but these past two years look brutal. I don't know if it has ever been mentioned, but I wonder if he's really what his age says.........Colorado: My favorite Rockies blog is Bad Altitude written by Mark T.R. Donohue. Mark does a great job with the Rockies and I must admit I am very grateful for his blog because if there is one team in all of baseball hardest for me to root for, it's probably the Colorado Rockies. It certainly is getting easier to root for them and follow them with guys like Matt Holliday and Troy Tulowitski playing for them now, but for the most part, they are still relatively difficult to watch or look for. I should note that the Rangers are very close to taking over for the Rockies in my fandom and the Marlins aren't too far behind either. As for 2008, the Rockies just aren't any good. They are 1.5 games ahead of the Padres for the worst record in the NL and have a game up on the Mariners, but as it stands now, the 15-23 record is the 3rd worst in the major leagues. EEK..........San Francisco: The main difference between Colorado and San Francisco is that the Giants have some killer pitching with Lincecum, Sanchez and Cain. Cain and Sanchez actually have ERA+ numbers under 100 which isn't too good, but their peripheral stats are amazing and the Giants are at least getting it right on the pitching side of the baseball. As to the hitting, it's brutal. When Aaron Rowand is your best hitter, then something has went terribly wrong and you windup where the Giants are. The Barry Bonds show did a number on the Giants and that is unfortunate. The Giants have a beautiful ballpark in a beautiful setting with a storied franchise. I think the Giants are one of the teams that the entire conglomerate of baseball benefits from when they are winning. When the Giants are losing, not only do San Franciscans lose out, but baseball fans around the nation miss out too..........San Diego: Greg Maddux finally got his 350th career victory, putting him 4 wins from tying Roger Clemens for 8th all time and 5 wins from moving into 8th place all together. Maddux really is an amazing speciman. He's just 3-3, but his peripheral numbers are fantastic. His H/9 is 9.0 while his K/9 is 4.7. His strikeout numbers aren't what they used to be because his stuff has detoriatd to the point where Maddux can't strike anyone out on stuff alone but rather has to rely on deception and placement while pitching to contact most of the time. Maddux's fastball has averaged 82.6mph so far in 2008 which is the slowest it's been by far in his career. Last season his fastball was sitting at 84.7 so he's lost more than 2mph on his heater over the last season. Still, Maddux's BB/9 is 1.4 and his HR/9 is 0.9. Putting Maddux in Petco with a good defense makes him a good best to win 10-12 games every season. He needs 15 wins to put himself in the top-5 of all time with 365! I can't imagine him hanging it up anytime soon and if he pitched until he was 45 he's got 3 more years in him after 2008. If he got 10 each year and 10 this season, that would be 37 more victories which would put him at 387 career wins and 3rd all time behind Cy Young (511) and Walter Johnson (417). Cy Young's last season was 1911 and Johnson's last season was 1927. I know wins don't mean everything for starting pitchers, but Maddux right now is in the debate with Clemens as the greatest pitcher of our era, but if he gets to 387 wins, shouldn't we be talking of Maddux as possibly the greastest pitcher to have ever worn a uniform? If he strikesout a 100 batters a year until he's 45 then he'd have 374 more K which puts his total to 3,673 career strikeouts which would put him 6th all time! Not bad for a control pitcher.

N.L. PLAYOFFS ACCORDING TO PYTHAGOREAN

Arizona v. Chicago (N)
St. Louis v. Atlanta

No Mets, Phillies or Dodgers in this lineup. The Red Sox got the monkey off their back in 2004 and the White Sox followed suit in 2005 and now the Cubs are ready to do the same. Arizona is going to be an awfully tough out in the playoffs given their rotation, but Chicago looks the part and if I had to pick right now who would come out of the NL, I'd go with the Cubbies. One thing to think about if you are a team in the NL is that you had better make haste in 2008 because I think the Diamondbacks are a year away still given the youth of their lineup, but from 2009 forward if they keep the pitching together, Arizona is looking to set up a little dynasty in the desert.

QUESTIONS? COMMENTS? E-MAIL ME! baseballsavant@gmail.com

THE SAVANT GOES BADASS

One of the things I'm very interested in is martial arts. I don't study it or anything like that (yet), but over the last year or so, I've been pretty keen on trying to figure out a place to go to start learning a particular style. After watching quite a few MMA contests, I think I liked the idea behind getting into Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu because it's a good training for MMA. Now don't get me wrong, I'm not training for MMA competitions, but this form of martial art from what I can tell sort of goes in line with being a bit smaller. I'm slightly bigger than your average American male at 5 feet 10 inches and 200lbs and I'm certainly a lot stronger than most people. My best bench was 390lbs on an incline bench and my best squat is 550lbs. I haven't went to 400lbs on a regular bench simply because I haven't really felt like it too much and I try to train more heavily on my incline chest movements. Anyway, incline bench is more difficult weight wise so me incline pressing 390lbs probably translates to quite a bit more on the regular flat bench. Still, I'm just barely bigger than your average american male and so I think training as a smaller fighter would be better.

Anyway, the idea behind the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu is that it's ground fighting that doesn't allow a bigger opponent to gain an advantage with reach. Since I'm a little bit shorter I thought that was a pretty cool idea. Plus I think I like the idea of ground fighting and using a lot of joint locks, choke holds and strangles. Obviously if you've been around for awhile, you know I have a keen interest in orthopedic surgery and the idea behind hyperextending joints until they break is pretty cool. Not cool if it's happening to me, but pretty cool if I have to perform a surgery to repair.

So anyway, the Savant is going to give it a go. I don't know how far I'll get but I hope to advance pretty far. It would be fun to know and practice. Vox gave some advice about what to look for in a school and the one pretty close to me didn't have any women so I thought it a good sign and the instructors were pretty cool. Although he says akido over jujitsu, I think I'll like the ground fighting quite a bit.

Unfortunately I don't know if I'll keep up the training for a marathon. That was a lifetime goal by the way so maybe it won't be happening anytime soon. Instead, I think I'll train on breaking bones and forcing donks to tap out!

QUESTIONS? COMMENTS? E-MAIL ME! baseballsavant@gmail.com

JETER'S LEADERSHIP: FACT OR BIG MEDIA LIE?

That's a tough thing to say when you supposedly have the greatest teammate of all time playing SS for your team in Cap'n Jeets. However, there has been quite a bit said on Joba Chamberlain's excitement on the mound after getting players out and Kei Igawa's disgust on the mound when not being able to get anyone out. As Mr. Lombardi aptly notes, Igawa genuinely is the absolute human batting tee. Speaking of Was Watching, there is a post over there that has two pictures side by side of Chamberlain and Igawa and it's pretty telling and you should go there to look based on what I'm going to write.

My big question for the Yankees regarding Chamberlain is why haven't Jeter, Posada, Rivera, Pettitte or Mussina gone over to the kid and said:

"Hey rook, you seriously need to tone it down. That uniform your wearing means something and a lot of that something is professionalism. You aren't back playing for your high school team anymore and you aren't playing for Nebraska any longer. You are a Yankee and not a Cornhusker. You don't see us doing that stupid shit and the last time I checked we 4 are either Hall-of-Famers or borderline Hall-of-Famers and 3 of us have 4 World Series titles under out belts. You haven't done shit so knock it the fuck off!"

You go back to that 1996 team that won the first title and you see guys like Tino Martinez, Derek Jeter, Wade Boggs, Tim Raines, Darryl Strawberry, Bernie Williams, Andy Pettitte, Jimmy Key, David Cone, John Wetteland, Mariano Rivera, Dwight Gooden and Jeff Nelson. Those guys were professional and don't forget that the year before a lot of those guys were under the influence of the all-time great Don Mattingly. We all know the influence Mattingly had on Jeter about being a Yankee leader. Jeter has definitely fallen short of Matting